Futures Diverge In Grizzly Market; What To Do Now

Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures rose Monday morning while Nasdaq futures fell slightly. The price of Bitcoin fell over the weekend, extending a recent slide and the latest sign of a “risk-off” mindset hitting financial markets. Lucid Motors was an early loser Monday

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The stock market suffered sharp losses last week, with the major indexes shrugging off short-lived rebounds to close below key moving averages. Apple stock and Tesla are among key stocks to watch in the days ahead.

DocuSign (DOCU), a key 2020 winner, crashed Friday as hard times hit the software sector. But the writing was already on the wall for the e-signature leader.

Apple (AAPL) continues to hold up, rising modestly last week.

Adobe (ADBE), which had held up relatively well in recent weeks, finally tumbled on Friday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia stock are starting to show some strain. Tesla stock faces a key test after EV rivals such as Lucid (LCID), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Xpeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) plunged.

Lucid stock dived early Monday after disclosing an SEC subpoena related to an investigation of SPAC merger. Rivian stock got a number of analyst initiations, mostly positive.

A more-hawkish Fed and omicron variant fears are two catalysts for the recent sell-off, but what the market is doing matters far more than why. Investors should be playing defense in the current market environment, cutting exposure and not looking to make new buys.

Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft, Nvidia (NVDA) and Adobe stock are on IBD Leaderboard. MSFT stock and Adobe are on IBD Long-Term Leaders. Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft and XPEV stock are on the IBD 50.

The video embedded in this article reviewed the market action in detail and analyzed DOCU stock, Adobe and Tesla.

Bitcoin Price, Cryptocurrencies Off Lows

The price of Bitcoin plunged early Saturday to just above $42,000. The pioneer digital currency has recouped some of those losses to above $48,000, according to Coindesk. Ethereum is back above $4,000, off Saturday’s lows.

Both have pulled back from early November peaks, especially Bitcoin.

The price of Bitcoin hit a record of $68,990.90, around the time the first Bitcoin futures ETFs launched. The cryptocurrency tried to find support around its 50-day line but retreated late last week.

The crypto sell-off comes as financial assets are under pressure due to the Omicron Covid variant and hawkish Fed rhetoric as it confronts not-so-transitory inflation.

Bitcoin-related stocks such as Marathon Digital Technology (MARA), Hut 8 Mining (HUT) and Coinbase (COIN) fell sharply on Friday. They could be in for a rough Monday if Bitcoin doesn’t bounce back.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.7% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%, with Tesla and Nvidia among the big-cap tech drags.

Crude oil futures advanced solidly, though natural gas prices fell sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield rose a few basis points.

China overnight eased reserve requirements for banks, hoping to spur more lending and economic growth. That comes as property giant Evergrande Group appears at risk of default once again.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Coronavirus News

Coronavirus cases worldwide reached 226.27 million. Covid-19 deaths topped 5.27 million.

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit 49.96 million, with deaths above 808,000.

The omicron Covid variant has been identified in dozens of countries. Early indications are that it’s more infectious than previous strains, including the delta variant. But so far most cases have been mild. Many of those cases involve people who are vaccinated, suggesting that vaccines provide solid protection against hospitalizations and deaths. But these are early findings or informed guesses for now.

Still, vaccine makers Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech (BNTX) fell solidly early Monday.

Stock Market Last Week

The stock market rally tried to rebound on Monday and Thursday, but the selling pressure continued, especially for techs and small caps.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index lost 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite skidded 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 tumbled 3.7%.

The 10-year Treasury yield gave up 14% basis points to 1.34%, with most of that decline on Friday. As recently as Nov. 24, the 10-year yield hit 1.69%, a seven-month high.

ETFs

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) tumbled 6.3% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) gave up 2.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) plunged 6.6%. Microsoft stock and Adobe are major IGV holdings, with DOCU stock also in the ETF. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) edged up 0.6%. Nvidia stock is a key SMH holding.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) retreated 4.6% and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) fell 1.85%%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) lost 2.1% for the week, even with Thursday’s 6.1% bounce. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) edged up 0.4%, with actual builders looking strong. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) dipped 0.8% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) slid 2%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) dived 12.7% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 9.7%, both at 52-week lows. Tesla stock is still the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs. But Cathie Wood has been selling TSLA and other high-priced holdings while continuing to load up on beaten-down highly valued techs, especially software. ARK also recently bought some XPEV stock.

Five Best Chinese Stocks To Watch Now

DocuSign Stock

DocuSign stock cratered 42% on Friday after giving weak guidance. But the highly valued software maker had flashed several sell signals along the way, whether you bought near traditional buy points or at an early entry in June. After spiking higher on earnings on Sept. 3, DOCU sold off hard, breaking decisively through its 50-day line. This was a clear signal for anyone buying near record highs. By early October, DocuSign had nearly round-tripped the early entry gain, but it did bounce off its 200-day line. Then in November, DOCU stock plunged through its 50-day line and eventually its 200-day line, wiping out all its recent gains heading into earnings, with other hot software stocks tumbling.

Adobe Stock

Adobe stock plunged Friday, down 8.2% to 616.53. Shares decisively broke the 659.29 cup-with-handle buy point and the 50-day line, according to MarketSmith analysis. ADBE stock broke out in early November, and struggled to make much headway, but its relative strength line trended higher during the month. But with markets weakening and software names crashing, it’s hard for even institutional leaders to hold up.

Adobe and DocuSign are competitors in some markets.

Microsoft Stock

Microsoft stock fell 2% on Friday and for the week, to 323.01, following a 3.9% slide the week before. MSFT stock is far from broken. But after a mid-October breakout, shares trended steadily higher, riding the 10-day or 21-day lines. Now it’s testing the 50-day and 10-week lines. Breaking those levels decisively would also nearly wipe out recent gains, a fairly strong sell signal for recent buyers.

Nvidia Stock

Nvidia stock also is far from broken. Shares fell 4.5% on Friday, though they found support at the 21-day line. The 50-day line is still a long way off. Investors could certainly choose to hold NVDA stock here. Depending on your conviction in the name or your investing style, you could choose to take partial profits, either here or with a decisive 21-day line break.

On Thursday, the FTC said it would sue to block Nvidia’s planned $40 billion takeover of U.K. wireless chip designer ARM Holdings, though that didn’t seem to affect NVDA stock that day. On…